Experts gather at Kellogg to understand state of Chinese economy
After a tumultuous year sparring with the United States over trade, technology and geopolitics, China entered 2026 in a precarious position, balancing challenges both home and abroad. While the country’s economy continues to grow, high youth unemployment, a persistent real estate crash and more restrictive global trade policies flash warning signs for the world’s second-largest economy.
To sort through these disparate threads and anticipate what they mean for the future of China, the Kellogg School of Management convened a unique roundtable of economists, business journalists, political scientists and other experts from the United States and China. The conference was organized by a group led by Kellogg Professor Nancy Qian and hosted at the Global Hub on Jan. 6 and 7.
“In uncertain and complex times, collaboration and conversation across disciplines and perspectives is essential to leadership and scholarship,” said Francesca Cornelli, dean of the Kellogg School of Management. “This gathering provides perspective and insights at a moment when China’s economy, and its relationship with the world, is facing profound questions — and when thoughtful, nuanced analysis is more important than ever.”
On the opening night, participants heard reflections on U.S.-China engagement from Henry Bienen, interim president of Northwestern University, and a keynote address from Chong-en Bai, dean of the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University.
The second day of the conference featured expert panels on topics ranging from real estate, stock markets and tariffs to science, technology, education and labor. Participants debated whether today’s economic conditions in China resemble the Japanese financial crisis of the 1990s, the Chinese government’s strategic push for technological self-sufficiency and the role of the country-wide educational placement exam, the Gaokao, in Chinese society and policy.
A recurring theme throughout the day’s discussions was the increasing tensions between the U.S. and China under the second Trump administration. Attendees considered the impact of measures such as tariffs and export controls on the economic health of both sides, the pace of global scientific progress and the countries caught in the crossfire of these trade hostilities.
The conversation repeatedly emphasized that fully understanding these issues requires going beyond common American assumptions about the Chinese economy, hearing perspectives from experts in both countries.
“We brought the best economic minds from research, policy, journalism and business together to learn about an important and complex topic,” Qian said. “This type of fact-based conversation and inter-personal exchange is essential to better understand the growth and sustainability of the Chinese economy, as well as the future prospects of the U.S. and global economies.”
In addition to Qian, co-organizers of the conference included Ruixue Jia of the University of California, San Diego; Daniel Xu of Duke University; Shaoda Wang of the University of Chicago and David Yang of Harvard University. The event was sponsored by the Kellogg Global Poverty Research Lab.
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