Predicting Harm, Managing Risk: Analytics in High-Stakes Environments

This case features Beverly Walker, director of the Illinois Department of Children and Family Services (DCFS), as she evaluates whether or not to continue using a predictive analytics tool for improving child welfare and protection services. Walker's predecessor had launched a $366,000 pilot program that used analytics to identify children with a prior DCFS investigation who were at risk for serious injury or death in the hope of reducing disastrous occurrences. Although Walker generally pushed for improved technologies that could streamline information management for her staff in the field, the new system seemed to obscure rather than improve sight lines in some instances, tying up limited resources while still enabling horrific acts of brutality that blindsided social workers and fueled public outrage. The case is a cautionary tale for data-driven decision-making and provides a dramatic illustration of the breakdowns that can undermine predictive analytics in business environments. Through a series of discussion questions, students explore how to become more effective data leaders by appropriately matching business objectives with analytics solutions, setting clear objective functions, training and incentivizing stakeholders to use models, and helping senior leaders understand the risks associated with specific models as well as the costs and benefits of being right and wrong.