The Use of Simulations in Developing Robust Knowledge about Causal Processes: Methodological Considerations and an Application to Industrial Evolution

The paper develops a simulation method that can be used to develop knowledge inductively and test hypotheses about causal processes in social systems. Combining existing simulation methods in novel ways, it describes in detail the uses and requirements for carrying out history-friendly simulation experiments. The second part of the paper illustrates the value of the methodology by developing inductively information about the precise causal impact of (1) the initial number of organic chemists at the start of the industry (1857) and (2) the responsiveness of the German university system on the German global market share in the synthetic dye industry in 1913.