"Small and Large Firms over the Business Cycle," with Neil Mehrotra.
Abstract: Drawing from new, confidential data on income statements and balance sheets of US manufacturing firms, we provide new evidence on the relationship between size, cyclicality and financial frictions. First, while sales and investment of smaller firms tend to fluctuate more over the business cycle, the difference is too small to have an impact on aggregates --- especially given the high and rising degree of skewness of the firm size distribution. Second, the size effect remains unchanged when directly conditioning on firm-level proxies for financial strength. Additionally, while there is a size effect for sales and investment, there is none for measures of external financing. This evidence suggests that the relative behavior of small firms may not be informative about the role of financing frictions in amplifying business cycles.
"Multi-Frequency Trade," with Ian Dew-Becker and Charles Nathanson.
Abstract: We develop a noisy rational expectations model of financial trade featuring
investors who acquire information and trade on variation in fundamentals at
a range of different frequencies. While all tade happens on date 0, the
model generates predictions for how investors' exposures to fundamentals
will subsequently vary over time. In the model, restricting traders from
following strategies that yield exposures that vary at particular
frequencies lowers the efficiency of prices at those frequencies but has no
meaningful effect elsewhere; if anything, it increases efficiency.
In a particular equilibrium of the model, investors specialize into
following strategies that resemble frequency-specific investment. Investors
following the different strategies coexist, trade with each other, and make
money from each other. While not fully dynamically realistic, the model is
highly tractable and heuristically matches numerous basic features of
financial markets: investors endogenously specialize into strategies
distinguished by frequency; volume is disproportionately driven by
high-frequency strategies; and the portfolio holdings of informed investors
forecast returns at the same frequencies as those at which they trade.
"Default, debt maturity, and investment dynamics."
Abstract: This paper studies the optimal maturity structure of debt in a dynamic investment model with financial frictions. External financing is costly because firms have limited liability, and default entails deadweight output losses. Firms operate long-term assets, and may thus want to issue long-term debt in order to reduce short-term refinancing risk. However, lack of commitment on the firms’ part makes long-term debt issuance costly, relative to short-term debt. In theory, the optimal maturity structure of debt should trade off these two forces. In numerical calibrations of the model, however, short-term financing strongly dominates. Optimal borrowing policies in fact often involve active maturity shortening, in particular via debt repurchases. The optimality of short-term financing suggests that none of the benefits traditionally associated with long-term financing — such as addressing maturity mismatch — are quantitatively significant in “neo-classical” models of the firm.
"Aggregate Implications of Corporate Debt Choices."
June 2017 (Forthcoming, Review of Economic Studies).
Abstract: This paper studies the transmission of financial shocks in a model where corporeate credit is intermediated via both banks and bond markets. In choosing between bank and bond financing, firms trade off the greater flexibility of banks in case of financial distress against the lower marginal costs of large bond issuances. I find that, in response to a contraction in bank credit supply, aggregate bond issuance increases, but not enough to avoid a decline in aggregate borrowing and investment. Retiring bank loans while keeping total leverage constant would expose firms to a larger risk of financial distress; they offset this by reducing total borrowing. A calibration of the model to the Great Recession indicates that this precautionary mechanism can account for one-third of the total decline in investment by firms with access to public debt markets.
"What Do Inventories Tell Us About News-Driven Business Cycles?," with Hyunseung Oh.
Journal of Monetary Economics, May 2016.
Abstract: There is widespread disagreement regarding the quantitative contribution of news shocks to business-cycle fluctuations. This paper provides a simple identifying restriction, based on inventory dynamics, that tightly pins down the contribution of news shocks to business-cycle volatility. We show that finished-good inventories must fall when there is an increase in consumption and investment induced by news shocks. A structural VAR with these sign restrictions indicates that news shocks account for at most 20 percent of output volatility. Since inventories comove positively with consumption and investment in the data, shocks that generate negative comovement cannot account for the bulk of fluctuations.
Older version of the paper ; older version of the appendix.
"Firm Investment and the Composition of Debt."
Abstract: This paper analyzes optimal debt structure when firms simultaneously choose the size of the project to be financed (investment), and the composition of debt between intermediated debt (bank loans) and arm's length debt (bonds). The key distinction between the two forms of debt is that, when liquidation looms, intermediated debt is easier to restructure. Absent deadweight losses in liquidation, debt structure is irrelevant to the investment choices of the entrepreneur. With liquidation losses, I show that investment is financed by a combination of bank and market finance so long as 1) banks have higher intermediation costs than markets and 2) internal resources of entrepreneurs are sufficiently small. The share of bank finance in total investment then depends non-monotonically on internal resources: firms with very limited internal resources are increasingly reliant on bank finance to expand investment, while medium-sized firms reduce the contribution of bank finance as their internal resources increase. The model's predictions finds support in cross-sectional data on the debt structure of US manufacturing firms.
Work in Progress
"How financially constrained are small firms?" (with Neil Mehrotra)