DECS-430: Business Analytics I

The following exercises are optional (and reach beyond the course requirements):
Odds exercises
Examples: Birthdays, bags of balls, "Let's Make a Deal!"

Session 2: Random variables.

Session slides

Practice problems
Exercises and Answers
Exercises (and answers) on variability

Homework 2 (due by 11 P.M. on Sunday, May 15)

Assigment (part 1)
"Pooled Testing" case
Answer form (with part 2 of assignment)

Session 3: Probability wrap-up.

Session slides

Session 3A: Independence
Pricing a stock option
Session 3B: Dependence
Example: Predicting the State-by-State Outcome of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election
Covariance and correlation
Portfolio management
Optional: Comments on the role of spreadsheets in decision analysis
Optional: Examples of optimization using Excel's "Solver" add-in
Session 3C: The normal distribution
The Central Limit Theorem.
Notes on the normal distribution
Exercises involving normality
Optional: Simulating a normal random variable
Optional: Tail expectations of normal random variables

Summary of formulas and skills from the first three classes:

Probability basics

Exercises

answers

Homework 3 (due by 11 P.M. on Sunday, May 22)

Assigment (part 1)
Answer form (with part 2 of assignment)

Session 4: Statistics, and the languages of estimation and hypothesis testing.

Estimation slides

Hypothesis testing slides

An Overview of Statistics

Estimation
Notes on estimation
Exercises on estimation

Hypothesis Testing
Notes on hypothesis testing
An hypothesis-testing tool
Optional: [An hypothesis-testing paradigm, showing the details behind the "tool"]
Exercises on hypothesis testing with answers (spreadsheet)
Hall v. Florida and analysis

Statistics Summary

Practice problems

Problems (with answers)

Homework 4 (due by 11 P.M. on Sunday, May 29)

Assignment
Bike damage dataset
Odometer readings dataset
Answer form

Session 5: Sampling, and adverse selection.
Session slides

Sampling
Optional: Polling
Notes on sampling (through "Sampling methods: Simple random sampling")
Optional: Presidential polls
Optional: A Primer on Polls
Optional: Dealing with nonresponse bias
Optional: A few sampling examples

Optimization (Solver)
Optional: Comments on the role of spreadsheets in decision analysis
Optional: An R&D race
Optional: Examples of optimization using Excel's "Solver" add-in
Portfolios
Optional: Portfolio management
Optional: Portfolios and CAPM
Adverse selection
Akerlof's example
Optional: Dealing with it
Optional: The "Winner's Curse"

Final warnings
Examples of potentially-careless statistics

Sample exam
Sample exam answers

Class website, zipped (04-11-16)
Download, extract to a folder, and double-click "INDEX.htm" to access offline.