Final advice to National

To: National R&D Committee
From: Your outside strategic consultant
Date: The day you must finally decide what to do
Re: Whether to be "in" or "out"

Based on the economic data youíve provided me, Iíve analyzed the problem youíre facing. Thereís one critical piece of information I still require: your assessment of the likelihood that Ware will choose to pursue this research opportunity.

Once you provide me with this assessment, my advice will be simple: If you believe the chance that Ware will be "in" to be less than 73.4%, invest in the research project yourself. In this case, hope that Ware ends up being "out", or that the composite process is is feasible and that you beat Ware to demonstrating feasibility. Anticipate the economic consequences of this problem to be the cost of your two years of research, combined with an expected long-term gain of [ Pr(Ware is "out") + Pr(Ware is "in" ) * 50% ] * 50% * $6,030,000 (NPV).

In assessing the likelihood that Ware will be "in", you should certainly take into account the following information: