Based on the economic data youíve provided me, Iíve analyzed the problem youíre facing. Thereís one critical piece of information I still require: your assessment of the likelihood that National will choose to pursue this research opportunity.
Once you provide me with this assessment, my advice will be simple: If you believe the chance that National will be "in" to be greater than 63.3%, invest in the research project yourself. Hope that National ends up being "out", or that the composite process is not feasible, or that you beat National to demonstrating feasibility. Anticipate the economic consequences of this problem to be the cost of your two years of research, combined with a long-term expected loss of Pr(National is "in") * 50% * 50% * $6,030,000 (NPV).
In assessing the likelihood that National will be "in", you should certainly take into account the following information: