Advice to National, a month before they must choose how to act

To: National R&D Committee
From: Your outside strategic consultant
Date: One month before the day you must finally decide what to do
Re: Whether to be "in" or "out"

Based on the economic data you�ve provided me, I�ve analyzed the problem you�re facing. There�s one critical piece of information I will require a month from now: your assessment of the likelihood that Ware will choose to pursue this research opportunity (see Exhibit 4).

At the current time, I recommend that you begin collecting information in order to help make that final assessment. I also recommend that you make this information-collection activity an organization-wide effort. (Here�s a Web reference to some information you might find of use with regard to this.) Who can tell what member of your staff might come across a relevant piece of information concerning Ware�s intentions?

In addition, please note that � whatever your own final decision � you will always be at least as well off if Ware chooses to be "out" of the race rather than "in," and Ware will be most likely to choose to be "out" if they consider it likely that you are "out" as well. Several issues are worthy of consideration:

A month from now, be sure to take your own assessment of your success (in whichever of these activities you choose to engage in) into account when assessing the likelihood that Ware will be in the race.

Finally, be aware that Ware might well be attempting to gather information concerning your intentions, or trying to seek confirmation of information you�ve chosen to leak (see Exhibit 1). Remember: Loose lips sink ships. (In case everyone on your committee is too young to recognize this last slogan: It dates back to World War II.)