BEGIN:VCALENDAR PRODID:-//Microsoft Corporation//Outlook 16.0 MIMEDIR//EN VERSION:2.0 METHOD:PUBLISH X-MS-OLK-FORCEINSPECTOROPEN:TRUE BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:Central Standard Time BEGIN:STANDARD DTSTART:16011104T020000 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYDAY=1SU;BYMONTH=11 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0600 END:STANDARD BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:16010311T020000 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYDAY=2SU;BYMONTH=3 TZOFFSETFROM:-0600 TZOFFSETTO:-0500 END:DAYLIGHT END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT CLASS:PUBLIC CREATED:20260924T185458Z DESCRIPTION:Speaker:\nRafael Prieto-Curiel\, Faculty Member\, Complexity Sc ience Hub Vienna\n\n\nTitle:\nWhy Incarcerating Cartel Members has not Wor ked to Reduce their Violence\n\n\nAbstract: \nOrganised crime cartels must largely be analysed as black boxes because direct observation is rarely p ossible\, and available evidence consists mostly of imperfect proxies and very limited data. I will present complex systems models to quantify recru itment and incarceration to analyse the effect of organised criminals in M exico. The results suggest that incarcerating cartel members has minor eff ects on reducing cartel violence\, even with harsher punishment or longer sentences.\n\n\nSpeaker Bio:\nRafael Prieto-Curiel is a Faculty Member at the Complexity Science Hub \, working on violence\, mobility\, migration and urban dynamics. He works for the OECD and the World Bank\, where he does a spatial and de mographic analysis of cities. He is the Scientific Advisor of Aleph.\n \nH e was awarded the “Science Breakthrough” award by the Falling Walls Fo undation in 2024.\n \nBefore\, he was at the Mathematical Institute of the University of Oxford / UCL CASA\, working on urban dynamics at the Peak U rban project. He earned an MSc in Statistics and a PhD in Maths and Securi ty and Crime at University College London (UCL).\n \nHe worked in the Emer gency Attention Centre from Mexico City (C5) as Director of Strategic Anal ysis. His work consisted basically of crime forecasting and police and res ource allocation. \n \nRafael is very interested in science communication. When he was an undergraduate student\, he directed Laberintos e Infinitos \, a maths magazine. When he started his PhD at UCL\, he founded Chalkdust \, a mathematics magazine. He also founded Punto Decimal MX\, a science co mmunication website. In total\, he has published 11 editions of a maths ma gazine\, with nearly 30\,000 printed copies and edited nearly 500 articles by more than 200 authors.\n\nLocation:\nIn person: Chambers Hall\, 600 Fo ster Street\, Lower Level\nRemote option: https://northwestern.zoom.us/j/ 94858847147 \nPasscode: NICO26\n\n\nAbout the Speaker Series:\nWed nesdays@NICO is a vibrant weekly seminar series focusing broadly on the to pics of complex systems\, networks\, and artificial intelligence. It bring s together attendees ranging from graduate students to senior faculty who span all of the schools across Northwestern\, from applied math to sociolo gy to biology and every discipline in-between. Please visit: https://bit.l y/WedatNICO for information on future speakers.\n \n DTEND;TZID="Central Standard Time":20261028T130000 DTSTAMP:20260924T185458Z DTSTART;TZID="Central Standard Time":20261028T120000 LAST-MODIFIED:20260924T185458Z LOCATION:Chambers Hall (600 Foster St\, Evanston\, IL 60201) PRIORITY:5 RECURRENCE-ID;TZID="Central Standard Time":20261028T120000 SEQUENCE:0 SUMMARY;LANGUAGE=en-us:Wed@NICO: Rafael Prieto-Curiel\, Complexity Science Hub Vienna TRANSP:OPAQUE UID:040000008200E00074C5B7101A82E00800000000A06CD56D854BDD01000000000000000 010000000FD502B7634EB0B4F84204E9F72ECF6B8 X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:
< p class=MsoNormal>Speaker:

Rafael Prieto-Curiel\, Faculty Member\, Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Title:

Why Incarcerat ing Cartel Members has not Worked to Reduce their Violence

Abstract: \;

Organised crime cartels must largely be analysed as black boxes because direct observation is rarely pos sible\, and available evidence consists mostly of imperfect proxies and ve ry limited data. I will present complex systems models to quantify recruit ment and incarceration to analyse the effect of organised criminals in Mexico. The results sugge st that incarcerating cartel members has minor effects on reducing cartel violence\, even with harsher punishment or longer sentences.

Speaker Bio:

Rafael Prieto-Curiel is a Faculty Memb er at the Complexity Science Hub\, workin g on violence\, mobility\, migration and urban dy namics. He works for the OECD and the World Bank\, where he does a spatial and demographic analysis of cities. He is the Scientific Advisor of Aleph .

 \;

He was awarded the “\;Science Breakthrough”\; award by the Fal ling Walls Foundation in 2024.

  \;

Before\, he was at the Mathematical Institu te of the University of Oxford / UCL CASA\, working on urban dynamics at t he Peak Urban project. He earned an MSc in Statistics and a PhD in Maths and Security and Crime at University College Lond on (UCL).

 \;

He worked in the Emergency Attention Centre from Mexico City (C5 ) as Director of Strategic Analysis. His work consisted basically of crime forecasting and police and resource allocation. \;

 \;

Rafael is very int erested in science communication. When he was an undergraduate student\, h e directed Laberintos e Infin itos\, a maths magazine. When he started his PhD at UCL\, he founded Chalkdust\, a mathem atics magazine. He also founded Punto Decimal MX\, a science communication website. In total\, he has published 11 editions of a maths magazine\, with nearly 30\,000 printed copies and edited near ly 500 articles by more than 200 authors.


Location:

In person: Chambers Hall\, 600 Foster Street\, Lower Level
Remote option: \; https://northwestern.zoom.us/ j/94858847147
Passcode: NICO26

About the Speaker Series:

W ednesdays@NICO is a vibrant weekly seminar series focusing broadly on the topics of complex systems\, networks\, and artificial intelligence. It brings together attendees ranging from graduate students to senior fac ulty who span all of the schools across Northwest ern\, from applied math to sociology to biology and every discipline in-be tween. Please visit: https://bit.ly/Wed atNICO for information on future speakers.

 \;

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