Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager, Management Science
We focus on ways of combining simple database models with managerial intuition. We present a model and method for isolating managerial intuition. For five different business forecasting situations, our results indicate that a combination of model and manager always outperforms either of these decision inputs in isolation, an average R[sup 2] increase of 0.09 (16%) above the best single decision input in cross-validated model analyses. We assess the validity of an equal weighting heuristic, 50% model + 50% manager, and then discuss why our results might differ from previous research on expert judgment.
Blattberg, Robert. 1990. Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager. Management Science. 36(8): 887-899.