Successful betting in a climate prediction market can increase concern about global warming

Modifying beliefs about climate change has proven to be difficult. Attempts to offer information, appeal to values and norms, or enact policies have largely been ineffective. We examine whether participation in a climate prediction market holds promise for shifting beliefs by acting as a non-partisan arbiter of truth in the context of global warming. In a study with self-assigned climate change Believers and Skeptics we show that simply engaging in a climate prediction market does not change people’s beliefs. However, winning bets in the market does change attitudes about climate issues. Participants shift toward stronger concern about climate change proportional to their winnings, irrespective of whether they are Believers or Skeptics. Both Believers and Skeptics perform equally well in terms of total earnings, although the highest earners are exclusively Believers. Our results suggest that prediction markets can be useful for modifying climate attitudes.