From: Subject: Falling Off an ETF Seesaw - WSJ.com Date: Fri, 16 May 2008 15:11:03 -0500 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01C8B767.0EA79F80" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.3198 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C8B767.0EA79F80 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB121037996524082277.html Falling Off an ETF = Seesaw - WSJ.com


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May=20 10, 2008

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Falling Off an ETF = Seesaw

Surge=20 in Crude Futures Doomed Funds
Designed by Shiller to Exploit = Oil=20 Prices By DIYA=20 GULLAPALLI
May 10,=20 2008; Page B1

It sounded like a can't-miss idea: a pair of=20 exchange-traded funds developed by a celebrity economist to track=20 crude-oil futures.

One lets investors bet oil prices will rise, the = other that=20 they will fall.

=20

But in recent days, creator MacroMarkets LLC = announced the=20 funds would terminate at the end of June, cashing out = shareholders. This=20 fizzle, after a year-and-a-half run, is one of the highest-profile = embarrassments for the growing ETF industry over the past = year.

Turns out the funds, the brainchild of famed Yale = economist=20 Robert Shiller, were too smart for their own good.

These ETFs, known as MacroShares Oil Up = and=20 MacroShares Oil Down, are baskets of assets that trade like = stocks.

But they have a unique structure, which was = designed to=20 spare the funds the headache and cost of owning the actual=20 commodities.

Instead of owning oil futures as most of its = rival ETFs do,=20 the two funds invest in short-term securities such as Treasurys = and are=20 equally collateralized at inception.

The two funds were designed to act like a seesaw. = When oil=20 rose, the securities would move from the Oil Down ETF, lowering = its value,=20 into the Oil Up ETF, raising its value.

The problem was, oil prices were about $60 a = barrel when=20 the funds made their debut in November 2006. When oil approached = $120, the=20 Oil Down ETF was almost out of money, and the funds' automatic=20 early-termination trigger kicked in.

Under MacroShares' limits, should the settlement = prices of=20 Nymex light, sweet crude-oil-futures contracts rise to or above = $111 for=20 three consecutive trading days, then the twin ETFs must be = dissolved.

That happened in April. Thus their final trading = day will=20 be June 25, with the final distribution made on July 3.

Many Oil Up investors could have done better = elsewhere.=20 U.S. Oil Fund, an ETF that similarly tracks West Texas = Intermediate crude=20 oil but without the complex structure, is up 102% in the past = year,=20 compared with 60% for the Up fund shares.

Meanwhile, holders of MacroShares Oil Down have = gotten=20 slammed, down 84%, as oil prices have surged.

MacroMarkets says it stands by the paired = structure, saying=20 it can help trade unique indexes and avoid hidden counterparty = risk.

Its chief executive, Sam Masucci, has said that = the=20 products' $300 million in assets and trading volume of over three = million=20 shares per day "clearly demonstrate the market's acceptance."

Their creator, Mr. Shiller, didn't respond to = requests to=20 comment.

Partly thanks to their complex nature, the funds = have been=20 star-crossed from the beginning.

First, they had difficulty finding specialists to = help=20 trade them on the American Stock Exchange. Then the funds lost = their=20 original marketing agent, Claymore Securities.

The twin ETFs' prices stayed flat for much of = 2007, even as=20 oil went higher. Only late in 2007 did the shares start moving, as = oil's=20 ascent accelerated.

Trying to entice more investors, the sponsor = split the=20 shares, three for one, which made them more affordable.

When the Up shares are redeemed in July, = investors who got=20 in early will likely make some money.

They will be cashed out based on the underlying = value and=20 not at the lagging price of the ETF.

Anyone buying in now could make as much as 5%. = For the Down=20 shares, it's the opposite: Investors in that ETF stand to lose = money.

"About the only redeeming feature of the = controversial=20 MacroShares" is "that they automatically blow up" at a certain=20 oil-futures-contract price, wrote Greg Newton on markets Web site = Naked=20 Shorts recently.

Looked Good on Paper

MacroShares executives disagree. The idea of a=20 commodity-linked ETF would seem to have great allure: It is = cheaper, more=20 convenient and less risky than playing with futures.

Staying in the futures game means a contract must = be rolled=20 over several times a year. And the chances of losing everything = with=20 futures are daunting.

Amid stalling ETF issuance, commodities products = are one=20 bright spot. This year, commodity-ETF assets have grown 22% = through March=20 to $31 billion, according to State Street Global Advisors. = Deutsche=20 Bank AG launched four more exchange-traded notes linked to its = proprietary commodity indexes recently.

New Versions

So an undaunted MacroMarkets will try to launch = new=20 versions of the Up and Down shares based on 2008's higher oil = prices. In=20 addition, the firm is developing a separate pair of securities = tracking=20 the cost of medical inflation.

The new generation of $100 Oil Up and $100 Oil = Down shares=20 also will be susceptible to a forced closing if oil hits $185 or = more for=20 three days, or dips below $15.

Blowing through the ceiling again isn't too = far-fetched.=20 Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts are predicting that oil could = reach as=20 high as $200 a barrel this year.

Write to Diya Gullapalli at diya.gullapalli@wsj.com¹⁼

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