Over the past 25 years, Nassau and Suffolk counties on Long Island,
N.Y., experienced the highest house-price appreciation of any big
metropolitan area. Prices there rose an average of 9.1 percent a
year.
But calculating the actual return on a Long Island house is more
complex than this. A typical family would have used a mortgage,
putting up much less money at first than the house’s price. The
family would have gotten tax deductions on the mortgage interest,
too. But it also would have paid property taxes and made renovations
to the house. What’s more, the family would have lived in the house,
saving on any rent they would have paid to live somewhere else.
Including all these factors, Thomas Z. Lys, an accounting professor
at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University,
calculates that a $100,000 home bought in 1980 gave an average annual
increase of 17.8 percent.
Out of this 17.8 percent, 5.1 percentage points comes from sheer
price appreciation, over and above the value of living in the house.
That is much lower than many people imagine — and far lower than
the stock market’s return. But many homeowners seem to forget how
much they have spent on repairs and renovations over the years.
None of this means a house is a bad investment. It’s just that
most of the value of a house comes from using it. In this way, it
is more a consumer product than it is an investment. Out of 17.8
percent annual return, 12.7 percentage points come from this value
of using the house. Without owning the house, a family would have
to pay to live somewhere else. When they sell the house, they will
also have to pay to live somewhere else.
Over this same time span, the Standard and Poor’s 500 index has
had an average annual return of 12.1 percent.
Taking inflation into account would significant reduce all of
these returns. During this period, inflation rose at an annual rate
of 3.65 percent. In fact, people often confuse normal inflation
— the same force that makes everything from milk to cars more expensive
— with an actual increase in house value.
If you’re interested in how home prices have fared in your area
over the past 25 years as compared to the Standard and Poor’s 500
index, go here to download this interactive spreadsheet. You will
need a spreadsheet program like Excel to view it.