NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investment banks are in the midst of
the annual fight for bragging rights as the biggest dealmakers
of the year, but this time the rankings -- a key factor in
winning new business -- are under intense scrutiny.
In one big deal this year, for example, a financial
services company acted as its own adviser. In other
transactions, it wasn't clear which banks deserved the credit
for making them happen.
Questions like these are paving the way for the
introduction of measuring success by the merger and acquisition
fees banks generate, not the size of their deals.
``That would be a prime indication of real importance in the
M&A area,'' said Samuel Hayes, finance professor at Harvard
Business School. ``I always say: 'Follow the money.'''
For years, banks have used the rankings by deal size as a
marketing tool to try to convince customers to hire them.
But some critics question the rankings, saying they sometimes
include deals where the advisers have done little or no work, but
received banking credit in exchange for other business. For instance,
it recently looked like Citigroup might gain credit for advising
on Kmart Holdings Corp.'s (KMRT) planned acquisition of Sears, Roebuck
& Co. (S) for $11 billion, even though The Wall Street Journal
reported that it was added onto the deal after it was announced.
However, Thomson Financial and Dealogic, which put out the
rankings known as league tables, said this week they would not
give Citigroup credit for the transaction because the company
didn't show that it had done the work.
Critics are also raising their eyebrows over the year's biggest deal, J.P.
Morgan Chase & Co.'s (JPM) $58 billion acquisition of Bank One.
The issue? The adviser was J.P. Morgan's own team of bankers.
Also included in Thomson Financial's rankings are plans by
Royal Dutch/Shell Group to move to a single corporate
structure from dual ownership, which critics say should not
count. Four investment banks -- Rothschild, Citigroup, ABN Amro
and Deutsche Bank -- had advisory roles in that deal.
But Dealogic will exclude the Shell unification from its
tables because it does not consider such corporate
restructurings as M&A work.
In addition, a takeover battle for Japanese bank UJF
Holdings is complicated because Mitsubishi Tokyo
Financial Group did not disclose the terms of its bid,
while hostile suitor Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
has offered $29 billion.
Dealogic and Thomson defend the league tables as reflecting
the wishes of their clients, the banks. Both firms meet with
the banks at the beginning of each year to discuss any changes
to the criteria.
Wall Streeters have been coping with the tables'
shortcomings for about two decades.
``I think the tables are intellectually bankrupt,'' said
Sagent Advisors founder Hal Ritch, who previously helped
oversee mergers and acquisitions at Citigroup.
``They were proxies for real market share back when many of
the firms were private,'' Ritch said. ``But now most of the
revenue market share data is public, and it's really kind of
silly.''
Thomson Financial and Dealogic say changes are in the
works. At the end of the year, Dealogic will publish tables
based not only on the value of the deal, but also on the
estimated fees the investment banks collect from them,
according to Carlos Penalba, head of U.S. mergers and
acquisitions analysis.
And while Thomson Financial has met resistance from its
clients -- the investment banks that pay to be included in the
rankings and receive the company's analysis -- it expects to
produce fee-based analysis in the future, Research Director
Mary Burke said.
That does not mean that the end of the league tables in
their current form. Burke expects fee-based information to
supplement, rather than replace, the deal-value charts.
But neither method gets at the real issue, according to Thomas
Lys, mergers and acquisitions professor of Northwestern University's
Kellogg School of Management.
"I would like to know who does the best deals,'' Lys said.
"Who cares how many deals you did if they are all bad?''
For instance, Lys said, America Online's acquisition of
Time Warner -- the world's biggest merger -- also proved to be
one of the worst in history. But deal, worth $164 billion in
stock, brought substantial credit to the banks advising on it.
Instead of the financial value of the deals, Lys said,
banks should be measured by how investors react to the
transactions, whether an acquisition is divested again and how
long the integration takes.
Over time, the tables do show a consistency in the banks
that are ranked near the top, although every system has its own
problems, said Morton Pierce, head of mergers and acquisitions
at law firm Dewey Ballantine.
``If I go by the size of deal, a deal may be aberrational,''
Pierce said. ``If I go by the number of deals, maybe someone who
churns out high volume of low-value deals may somehow benefit.
``I don't know that there's a perfect system.''