Case Number: 5-104-033, Year Published: 2006
HBS Number: KEL096
Forecasting, Diffusion Models, Analogical Forecasting, Conjoint Analysis, Network Externalities, Telecommunications Industry, Wireless Communications, Chain-Ratio Method
Illinois Superconductor Corporation was a technology startup that came up with an innovative new superconducting filter for use in cellular base stations. It needed to estimate the demand for its filters. The manager came up with a simple chain-ratio-based forecasting model that, while simple and intuitive, was too simplistic. The company had also commissioned a research firm to develop a model-based forecast. The model-based forecast used diffusion modeling, analogy-based forecasting and conjoint analysis to create a forecast that incorporated customer preferences, diffusion effects, and competitive dynamics. Students are asked to use the data to generate a model-based forecast, and to reconcile the model-based forecast with the manager’s forecast. The case requires sophisticated spreadsheet modeling, and the application of advanced forecasting techniques.
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