Midterm Problems

These problems will definitely be on your midterm exam. Feel free to work out your answers ahead of time and bring them to class next week.


Honor Code: Don't discuss these with anyone else.


You have run a televised advertisement telling interested viewers to call if they have questions or wish to purchase one of your vacuum cleaners. From previous promotions, you believe that each caller has a 70% chance of not buying anything, a 20% chance of buying the "standard" version (for $300), and a 10% chance of buying the "deluxe" version (for $500). Using 100,000 simulated observations, estimate the probability that you'll reach $5,000 in sales across the first 45 callers.


You are looking to sell a batch of outdated appliances to an online wholesaler. You've found three potential buyers, who will independently submit bids: You'll accept the highest bid. Having spoken with each of the three, you believe that the bid from each will be normally-distributed with expected value $80,000 and standard deviation $5,000. Using 100,000 simulated observations, estimate the expected size of the winning (highest of the three) bids.


One of your salesfolks is paid purely on commission: He receives 12% of his sales on the first $300,000 of product that he sells, and 15% on any sales over that amount. From past performance, you believe that his sales for the year, given this incentive scheme, will be normally distributed, with an expected value of $320,000 and a standard deviation of $50,000. What is his expected compensation for the year? (Estimate the answer using 250,000 simulated observations.)