Expertise in Forecasting Performance of Security Analysts, Journal of Accounting and Economics
In this study of sell-side analysts forecasts, we explore the effects of analyst aptitude, learning by-doing, and the internal environment of the brokerage house on forecast accuracy. Our results indicate that analysts' aptitude and brokerage house characteristics are associated with forecast accuracy, while learning-by-doing is only associated with forecast accuracy when we do not control for analysts' company-specific aptitude in forecasting. It is unlikely that this result is caused by measurement errors because it is robust when we use a sub-sample where we can accurately measure experience.
John Jacob, Thomas Lys, Margaret A. Neale
Jacob, John, Thomas Lys, and Margaret A. Neale. 1999. Expertise in Forecasting Performance of Security Analysts. Journal of Accounting and Economics. 28(1): 51-82.