Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?, American Economic Review
We propose a model that generates an economic expansion following good news about future total factor productivity (TFP) or investment-specific technical change. The model has three key elements: variable capital utilization, adjustment costs to investment, and preferences that exhibit a weak short-run wealth effect on the labor supply. These preferences nest,as special cases, the two classes of utility functions most widely used in the business cycle literature. Our model generates recessions that resemble those of the post-war U.S. economy without relying on negative productivity shocks. Recessions are caused not by contemporaneous negative shocks but by lackluster news about future TFP or investment-specific technical change.
Nir Jaimovich, Sergio Rebelo
Jaimovich, Nir, and Sergio Rebelo. 2009. Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?. American Economic Review. 9(4): 1097-1118.