Research Details

Abstract

A new product forecasting model is described which uses survey data (not panel data) to predict year-end test market sales from early test market results (usually three months). In addition to offering a sales forecast, the model is designed to provide diagnostic information about a new product's strengths and weaknesses. By relating advertising expenditures, price, and perceptions of performance/acceptability of the product to sales, the model indicates how an unsuccessful product can be redesigned or the marketing mix changed to make possible a successful introduction. The model also can be used for new product planning. Given a media plan, price, sampling level, couponing, and some estimate of repeat usage, a pre-test market forecast of year-end sales can be made which allows management to evaluate different marketing plans to see which best meets profit or sales goals.

Type

Article

Author(s)

Robert Blattberg

Date Published

1978

Citations

Blattberg, Robert. 1978. Tracker: An Early Test Market Forecasting and Diagnostic Model for New Product Planning. Journal of Marketing Research.(2): 192-202.