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Bibtex list of my papers or .bib file

Current Working Papers

  • "The Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008 and the Aggregate Demand for Consumption" with C. Broda, October 2012. Supplementary Materials

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  • "Valuation, Adverse Selection, and Market Collapses" with M. Fishman, NBER Working Paper 18358 (Similar to 2010 draft, and formerly called "Valuation and the Volatility of Investment" in 2009 and "Valuation and the Volatility of Financing and Investment" in the first half of 2010) ( Slides; Slides of dynamic model)

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  • Available on request: "Why Don’t Households Smooth Consumption? Evidence from a 25 million dollar experiment," first draft September 2012

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  • "An Economic Model of the Planning Fallacy," with M. K. Brunnermeier and F. Papakonstantinou, NBER WP 14228, August 2008

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  • Slides from summer institute for "Inequality in Expenditure in the Twentieth Century," with A. Vissing Jorgensen and Nicolas L. Ziebarth, July 2009

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  • The Benefits of Panel Data in Consumer Expenditure Surveys with N. Souleles and C Carroll, March 2012.
    • Surveyish paper for NBER/CRIW volume supporting the Gemini project on redesign of the CE Survey.

    Publications

  • "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008" with N. Souleles, D. Johnson, and R. McClelland, American Economic Review, forthcoming. Replication Data/Files Also NBER WP 16684, January 2011 Slides, Kellogg Insight Summary

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  • LEADS on Macroeconomic Risks to and from the Household Sector in Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, M. Brunnermeier and A. Krishnamurthy eds, forthcoming.

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  • "On Measuring the Effects of Fiscal Policy in Recessions," Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3), September 2011, 703-718 draft from here

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  • "The Increase in Income Cyclicality of High-Income Households and its Relation to the Rise in Top Income Shares" with A. Vissing Jorgensen, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol 41 No 2, (Fall 2010) 1-55. Also NBER WP 16577, December 2010. Data appendix; replication files on BPEA webpage.

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  • "Who Bears Aggregate Fluctuations and How?" with A. Vissing-Jorgensen American Economic Review, Vol 99 No 2, (May 2009) 399-405. Summary from NBER Digest (April 2009) A copy from here; A copy from JSTOR

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  • "The Integrated Financial and Real System of National Accounts for the United States: Does it Presage the Financial Crisis?," with M. Palumbo, American Economic Review, Vol 99 No 2, (May 2009) 80-86. A copy from here; A copy from JSTOR

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  • "Euler Equations," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition, Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume eds, Palgrave MacMillan, 2008, 1851-54.
    • (This is a correct version; the published version has several errors made by Palgrave MacMillan, some entirely their own, some failures to make corrections from page proofs.)
     
  • "Taxes and Growth in a Financially Underdeveloped Country: Evidence from the Chilean Investment Boom," with C. T. Hsieh, Economia, Vol 8 No 1, (Fall 2007) 121-60 . Unpublished appendix

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  • "Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns," with M. K. Brunnermeier and C. Gollier, American Economic Review, Vol 97 No 2, (May 2007) 159-65. NBER WP 12940 version with unpublished appendix

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  • "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001" with D. Johnson and N. Souleles, American Economic Review, Vol 96 No 5, (December 2006) 1589-1610. Summary from NBER Digest (April 2005). Replication files on AER webpage.

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  • "Optimal Expectations," with M. K. Brunnermeier, American Economic Review, Vol 95 No 4, (September 2005) 1092-1118. Program files on AER webpage.

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  • "Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," with C. Julliard, Journal of Political Economy, Vol 113 No 1, (February 2005) 185-222.

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  • "Precautionary Saving and Consumption Fluctuations," with B. Preston, American Economic Review
    • , Vol 95 No 4, (September 2005) 1119-43. Technical appendix
     
  • "Luxury Goods and the Equity Premium," with Y. Ait-Sahalia and M. Yogo, Journal of Finance, Vol 59 No 6, (December 2004) 2959-3004.

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  • "Comment on `Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates' by Eric M. Engen and R. Glenn Hubbard," in Mark Gertler and Ken Rogoff eds, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Cambridge: MIT Press, 2005, 139-147.

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  • "Consumption Risk and Expected Stock Returns," American Economic Review, Vol 93 No 2, (May 2003) 376-382.

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  • "Comment on: "Athanasios Orphanides and John Williams `Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol 2, (2002) 119-26.

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  • "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," with P. O. Gourinchas, Econometrica, Vol 70 No 1, (January 2002) 47-89.

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  • "The Consumption Risk of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol 2, (2001) 279-348.

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  • "The Empirical Importance of Precautionary Saving," with P. O. Gourinchas, American Economic Review, Vol 91 No 2, (May 2001) 406-12.

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  • "Comment on: "Real Estate and the Macroeconomy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol 2, (2000) 150-58.

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  • "Spendthrift in America? On two decades of decline in the U.S. saving rate," in Ben Bernanke and Julio Rotemberg eds, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Cambridge: MIT Press, Vol 14, (2000) 317-70.

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  • "The Reaction of Household Consumption to Predictable Changes in Social Security Taxes," American Economic Review, Vol 89 No 4, (September 1999) 959-73.

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  • "April 15th Syndrome," with Joel Slemrod, Charles Christian, and Rebecca London, Economic Inquiry, Vol 35, (October 1997) 695-709.

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  • "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is the Composition Bias?," with Gary Solon and Robert Barsky, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol 109 No 1, (February 1994) 1-25.

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    Unpublished Discussions

  • Discussion of Campbell, Giglio, and Polk at AFA, Chicago, IL January 2012

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  • Discussion of Kurlat and Veldkamp at at AEA, Chicago, IL January 2012

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  • Discussion of Aguair and Bils at NBER EFG, July 2011

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  • Discussion of Sufi and Mian at NBER PE, November 2010

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    Older Working Papers

  • "The Consumption Function Re-Estimated," August 1999.

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  • "The Propagation of Demand Cycles When Purchases are Timed," November, 2001 (formerly "The Timing of Purchases, Market Power, and Economic Fluctuations").

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