Decision Analysis and ModelingMBA and Executive MBA
This course has three anchors:
1-Fundamental concepts (conditional probability, independence, central limit theorem, risk aversion…)
2-Modeling tools, primarily simulations and decision tree analysis, using Palisade’s Decision Tools (@Risk and PrecisionTree)
3-Cases, in areas ranging from portfolio selection, options, moral hazard, real options, financial bubbles…
Case Studies I wrote in Decision Analysis and Modeling
The cases I wrote on this subject tend to be shorter and hypothetical to focus on specific learning points.
Formula for Success
- Hypothetical case to teach Bayesian updating and base rate effects.
- Themes: decision tree analysis in non-market (national security) context; separation of values and beliefs; incentive alignment in an organization.
Gaming Health Care Insurance
- Hypothetical case to teach moral hazard in insurance markets.
- Themes: Decision tree analysis, risk aversion, moral hazard.
Blind Shear Rams
- Hypothetical case on the value of information.
- Themes: Decision trees, value of information, risk aversion, corporate responsibility.
- Hypothetical case on the costs and benefits of greater equity in society and organizations.
- Themes: Risk aversion, incentives, ethics of redistribution, Rawlsian Justice.