Kellogg Events

V. Bhaskar

Fri, 17 May 2013 11:04:35 GMT

University College London
"The Ratchet Effect Re-examined: a learning Perspective"
3:30-5:00pm, Jacobs Center Room G43

Dirk Brockmann

Fri, 17 May 2013 10:41:14 GMT

Northwestern University
"Have We Been Looking at Global Disease Dynamics all Wrong?"
12:00-1:00pm, Chambers Hall, Lower Level

Guillermo Marshall

Fri, 17 May 2013 10:37:41 GMT

Northwestern University
"Price Discrimination in Business-to-Business Markets with Repeated Interactions"
3:30 PM - 5:00 PM, Donald P. Jacobs Center 3245

Laurens Debo

Fri, 17 May 2013 10:26:54 GMT

Booth
Topic TBA
12:00-1:00pm, Jacobs Center Room 561

Marina Halac

Fri, 17 May 2013 10:07:54 GMT

Northwestern University, Kellogg School of Management
"Fiscal Rules and Discretion under Persistent Shocks" (with Pierre Yared)
12:10PM - 1:10PM, Jacobs Center, Leverone 619

Abstract:

This paper studies the optimal level of discretion in policymaking. We consider a fiscal policy model where the government has time-inconsistent preferences with a present-bias towards public spending. The government chooses a fiscal rule to trade off its desire to commit to not overspend against its desire to have flexibility to react to privately observed shocks to the value of spending. We analyze the optimal fiscal rule when the shocks are persistent. Unlike under i.i.d. shocks, we show that the ex-ante optimal rule is not sequentially optimal, as it provides dynamic incentives. The ex-ante optimal rule exhibits history dependence, with high shocks leading to an erosion of future fiscal discipline compared to low shocks, which lead to the reinstatement of discipline. The implied policy distortions oscillate over time given a sequence of high shocks, and can force the government to accumulate maximal debt and become immiserated in the long run.

Yuval Salant

Thu, 16 May 2013 16:30:32 GMT

NU Kellogg MEDS Dept.
Title TBA
12:15 - 1:15 PM, Jacobs G43

Alvaro J.R. Villegas

Thu, 16 May 2013 15:42:33 GMT

Universidad de los Andes
12:00-1:15 PM
Jacobs 101

Alvaro J.R. Villegas

Thu, 16 May 2013 15:42:17 GMT

Universidad de los Andes
12:00-1:15 PM
Jacobs G43

Alvaro J.R. Villegas

Thu, 16 May 2013 15:41:17 GMT

Universidad de los Andes
12:00-1:15 PM
Jacobs G43

Hal Varian

Thu, 16 May 2013 14:50:54 GMT

Chief Economist at Google
"Bayesian Variable Selection for Nowcasting Economic Time Series" (with Steven Scott)
12:15-1:15 p.m., Jacobs G43