Professor Roese’s research appears in such leading scholarly journals as Journal of Consumer Psychology, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Perspectives on Psychological Science, Psychological Bulletin, Psychological Science, Psychology and Marketing, and Social Cognition. Professor Roese currently serves as Associate Editor of the journal, Social Cognition, and has performed panel review duties at the National Science Foundation. He currently sits on the editorial boards of the journals Perspectives on Psychological Science, Psychology and Marketing, Psychological Inquiry, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, and the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Professor Roese is a Fellow of the Association for Psychological Science, and has been an Associate of the Center for Advanced Study at the University of Illinois. Professor Roese’s research has been funded by grants from the National Science Foundation, the National Institute for Mental Health, and the Ford Foundation.
Professor Roese’s scholarly insights have been profiled in such media outlets as NPR, New York Times, Chicago Tribune, and the Harvard Business Review. Prior to joining Kellogg, Professor Roese taught at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where he was consistently recognized for outstanding teaching. At Kellogg, Professor Roese teaches courses on judgment and decision strategy.
Group Decision-Making
Intergroup Behavior
Psychology
Four experiments introduced a new conceptual and methodological approach to hindsight bias, traditionally defined as the tendency to exaggerate the a priori predictability of outcomes after they become known. By examining likelihood estimates rooted to specific time points during an unfolding event sequence (videos and short text stories), judged both in foresight and hindsight, we conceptualized hindsight bias as a contrast between two ‘‘inevitability curves,” which plotted likelihood against time.
Taking timing into account, we defined three new indicators of accuracy: linear accuracy (how well hindsight judgments capture the linear trend of foresight judgments over time), rate accuracy (how well hindsight judgments reflect the slope of foresight judgments over time), and temporal accuracy (how well hindsight judgments specify the overall timing of the full envelope of foresight judgments).
Results demonstrated that hindsight judgments showed linear and rate accuracy, but were biased only in terms of lack of temporal accuracy. The oft-used catchphrase ‘‘knew it all along effect” was found to be a misnomer, in that participants were well aware in hindsight that their earlier foresight judgments reflected uncertainty. The current research therefore points to one way in which retrospective judgments can be considered biased, yet simultaneously suggests that considerable accuracy exists when people render such judgments.
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Teaching Materials
MKTG 458 Syllabus, Spring 2010
This course counts toward the following majors: Marketing, Marketing Management
This course covers the field of consumer psychology. It provides a framework for analyzing consumer behavior. The focus in on the understanding consumers as a way of informing marketing research and driving marketing decision. The course is directed at students preparing for brand/product/marketing management, business development or consulting positions. Many companies are trying to become more sophisticated in analyzing consumer behavior. While the state of the art in most cases is still defined by consumer package goods companies, expertise in this area is increasingly relevant to a wide range of companies. This course will therefore draw on examples from a range of industries including core examples from consumer package goods.
Prerequisite: MKTG-430.
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