Professor Parker currently serves on the Academic Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, on the Board of Editors of the American Journal of Macroeconomics, and as Associate Editor for the Journal of Money Credit and Banking. He is a member of the American Economic Association and Econometric Society.
Professor Parker teaches macroeconomics and finance, and his research focuses on: macroeconomic risk and stock returns, taxation and consumer spending, national saving and wealth, income risk and consumer demand, and psychology and economics.
Behavioral Economics (Includes: Behavioral Finance)
Behavioral Finance (Includes: Behavioral Economics)
Equity Markets (Stock Market) (Includes: Asset Pricing, Investments and Portfolio Choice)
Investments and Portfolio Choice (Includes: Asset Pricing, Equity Markets/Stock Market)
Macroeconomics (Includes: Monetary Economics, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates)
Monetary Policy (Monetary Economics, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates)
-
Representative Work
"Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns"
"Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns"
"Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001"
- Recent Media Coverage
Christian Science Monitor (The New Economy blog): Will Americans become big personal savers again? - 10/5/2009
Washington Post: Waiting for Deep Pockets to Open - 9/9/2009
Los Angeles Times: Getting the affluent to spend again is a puzzle for luxury retailers - 9/9/2009
New York Times (Economix blog): What About the Upper Middle Class? - 8/21/2009
See all Kellogg in the Media
- Recent Kellogg News
The $100 Billion Question: Have the Tax Rebates Worked? - 7/31/2008
See all Kellogg News
1/01/2008Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Academic Advisory Council
1/01/2008
Long-Term Modelling Advisory Group, Congressional Budget Office, 2002-2004
Human beings want to believe that good outcomes in the future are more likely, but also want to make good decisions that increase average outcomes in the future. We consider a general equilibrium model with complete markets and show that when investors hold beliefs that optimally balance these two incentives, portfolio holdings and asset prices match six observed patterns: (i) because the cost of biased beliefs are typically second-order, investors typically hold biased assessments of probabilities and so are not perfectly diversified according to objective metrics; (ii) because the costs of biased beliefs temper these biases, the utility cost of the lack of diversification are limited; (iii) because there is a complementarity between believing a state more likely and purchasing more of the asset that pays off in that state, investors over-invest in only one Arrow-Debreu security and smooth their consumption well across the remaining states; (iv) because different households can settle on different states to be optimistic about, optimal portfolios of ex ante identical investors can be heterogeneous; (v) because low-price and low-probability states are the cheapest states to buy consumption in, overoptimism about these states distorts consumption the least in the rest of the states, so that investors tend to overinvest in the most skewed securities; (vi) finally, because investors with optimal expectations have higher demand for more skewed assets, ceteris paribus, more skewed asset can have lower average returns.
This article discusses the growth in investment and economic performance of Chile as a result of a corporate tax reform that cut the tax rate on retained profits from 1984 to 1986. This tax rate cut on retained profits for the said period was nearly 50 percent to 10 percent. The country has experienced an increase in savings and investment on the order of 10 percent of gross domestic product. By reducing the tax rate on retained earnings, the tax reform increased the internal funds of credit-constrained firms, which resulted to the increase in aggregate investment.
Using questions expressly added to the Consumer Expenditure Survey, we estimate the change in consumption expenditures caused by the 2001 Federal income tax rebates and test the Permanent Income Hypothesis. We exploit the unique, randomized timing of rebate receipt across households. Households spent 20-40 percent of their rebates on non-durable goods during the three-month period in which their rebates arrived, and roughly two-thirds of their rebates cumulatively during this period and the subsequent three-month period. The implied effects on aggregate consumption demand are substantial. Consistent with liquidity constraints, responses are larger for households with low liquid wealth or low income.
This paper evaluates the central insight of the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) that an asset's expected return is determined by its equilibrium risk to consumption. Rather than measure risk by the contemporaneous covariance of an asset's return and consumption growth, we measure risk by the covariance of an asset's return and consumption growth cumulated over many quarters following the return. While contemporaneous consumption risk explains little of the variation in average returns across the Fama and French 25 portfolios, our measure of ultimate consumption risk at a horizon of three years explains a large fraction of this variation.
Forward-looking agents care about expected future utility flows, and hence have higher current felicity if they are optimistic. This paper studies utility-based biases in beliefs by supposing that beliefs maximize average felicity, optimally balancing this benefit of optimism against the costs of worse decision making. A small optimistic bias in beliefs typically leads to first-order gains in anticipatory utility and only second-order costs in realized outcomes. In a portfolio choice example, investors overestimate their return and exhibit a preference for skewness; in general equilibrium, investors' prior beliefs are endogenously heterogeneous. In a consumption-saving example, consumers are both overconfident and overoptimistic.
This paper uses the consumption Euler equation to derive a decomposition of consumption growth into four sources. These are new information and three sources of predictable consumption growth: intertemporal substitution, changes in the preferences for consumption, and incomplete markets for consumption insurance. Using data on the expenditures of households, we implement the decomposition for the average growth rate of consumption expenditures on nondurable goods in the U.S. from the beginning of 1982 to the end of 1997. Incomplete markets for trading consumption in future states lead to statistically significant and countercyclical movements in expected consumption growth: consumption growth is expected to be higher when the unemployment rate is high. The economic importance of precautionary saving rivals that of the real interest rate, but the relative importance of each source of movement in the volatility of consumption is not precisely measured.
This paper evaluates the equity premium using novel data on the consumption of luxury goods. Specifying utility as a nonhomothetic function of both luxury and basic consumption goods, we derive pricing equations and evaluate the risk of holding equity. Household survey and national accounts data mostly reflect basic consumption, and therefore overstate the risk aversion necessary to match the observed equity premium. The risk aversion implied by the consumption of luxury goods is more than an order of magnitude less than that implied by national accounts data. For the very rich, the equity premium is much less of a puzzle.
Following the textbook C-CAPM, the consumption risk of an asset is typically measured as the contemporaneous covariance of the marginal utility of consumption and the return on that asset. When measured this way, consumption risk is too small to explain the observed equity premium, is negatively related to expected excess returns over time, and fails to explain the cross-sectional differences in average returns of the Fama and French (25) portfolios. This paper evaluates the central insight of the C-CAPM - that consumption risk determines returns - but take the model less literally by allowing the possibility that households do not instantaneously and completely adjust consumption to the news revealed about wealth in a period. The long-term consumption risk of the aggregate market is signficantly larger than the contemporaneous risk and is positively related to expected excess returns over time. The long-term consumption risk of different portfolios largely explains the observed differences in average returns.
This paper employs a synthetic cohort technique and Consumer Expenditure Survey data to construct average age-profiles of consumption and income over the working lives of typical households across different education and occupation groups. Using these profiles, we estimate a structural model of optimal life-cycle consumption expenditures in the presence of realistic labor income uncertainty. The model fits the profiles quite well. In addition to providing tight estimates of the discount rate and risk aversion, we find that consumer behavior changes strikingly over the life-cycle. Young consumers behave as buffer-stock agents. Around age 40, the typical household starts accumulating liquid assets for retirement, and its behavior mimics more closely that of a certainty equivalent consumer. This change in behavior is mostly driven by the life-cycle profile of expected income. Our methodology provides a natural decomposition of saving into its precautionary and retirement components.
One of the basic motives for saving is the accumulation of wealth to insure future welfare. Both introspection and extant research on consumption insurance find that people face substantial risks that they do not fairly pool. In theory, the consumption and wealth accumulation of price-taking households in an economy with incomplete markets differs substantially from the behavior of these same households in the equivalent economy with complete-markets. The question we address in this article is whether we find this difference to be large in practice. What is the empirical importance of precautionary saving? We provide a simple decomposition that characterizes the importance of precautionary saving in the U.S. economy. We use this decomposition as an organizing framework to present four main findings: (a) the concavity of the consumption policy rule, (b) the importance of precautionary saving for life-cycle saving and wealth accumulation, (c) the contribution of changes in risk to fluctuations in aggregate consumption and (d) the significant impact of incomplete markets on aggregate fluctuations in calibrated general equilibrium models. We conclude with directions for future research.
In tax year 1988, delaying filing income tax returns cost the 73.2 million taxpayers claiming refunds nearly one billion dollars of interest. 'Impatient' tax filers, who mail in their tax payments before the filing deadline, passed up $46 million in interest. The authors develop a model of tax filing based on stochastic opportunity cost and then investigate whether filing times are consistent with that model. They find some evidence for this because, ceteris paribus, higher refunds are associated with earlier filing and complex returns are associated with later filing, as are higher incomes (as a proxy for higher costs of time).
In the period since the 1960s, as in other periods, aggregate time series on real wages have displayed only modest cyclicality. Macroeconomists therefore have described weak cyclicality of real wages as a salient feature of the business cycle. Contrary to this conventional wisdom, our analysis of longitudinal microdata indicates that real wages have been substantially procyclical since the 1960s. We show that the true procyclicality of real wages is obscured in aggregate time series because of a composition bias: the aggregate statistics are constructed in a way that gives more weight to low-skill workers during expansions than during recessions.
People tend to underestimate the work involved in completing tasks and consequently finish tasks later than expected or do an inordinate amount of work right before projects are due. We present a theory in which people procrastinate because the ex-ante utility benefits of anticipating that a task will be easy to complete outweigh the average ex-post costs of poor planning. We show that, given a commitment device, people self-impose deadlines that are binding but require less smoothing of work than that chosen by a person with objective beliefs. We test our theory using extant experimental evidence on differences in expectations and behavior. We find that reported beliefs and behavior generally respond as our theory predicts.
An Euler equation is a difference or differential equation that is an intertemporal first-order condition for a dynamic choice problem. It describes the evolution of economic variables along an optimal path. It is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a candidate optimal path, and so is useful for partially characterizing the theoretical implications of a range of models for dynamic behavior. In models with uncertainty, expectational Euler equations are conditions on moments, and thus directly provide a basis for testing models and estimating model parameters using observed dynamic behavior.
This course counts toward the following majors: Finance
This course is an introduction to asset pricing theory and portfolio choice. The first part of the course introduces arbitrage theory, including state prices, equivalent martingale measures, beta pricing and the associated mean-variance analysis. The second part deals with optimal consumption/portfolio choice of agents and competitive equilibrium in the context of general preferences. The third part considers more detailed preference structures, including the theories of fund separation and Gorman aggregation, and expected utility theory. Time permitting, the course concludes with an introduction to rational expectations models with asymmetric information. Although the course is self-contained, it is best appreciated by students with some knowledge of microeconomics. Proficiency in elementary linear algebra and probability theory is required, as is some knowledge of basic nonlinear optimization theory.
This course counts toward the following majors: Finance, International Business
This course covers international macroeconomic theory and policy for business leaders. It covers the workings of the world economy and the national economies within which businesses operate. Specific topic include the measurement of national and international economic concepts; what determines which developing countries will develop and become good markets to produce in or to sell to; what causes business cycles, how policy should respond, and how recessions propagate internationally; how U.S. markets respond to U.S. government debt; and what determines the trade balance and the strength of the dollar. In addition to exploring the specific workings of the current global economy, students will learn an approach to analyzing macroeconomic issues that is useful for understanding new international economic developments.
Macroeconomic Analysis For Management (MECN-450-0)
This course counts toward the following majors: Managerial Economics
This course provides an overview of modern macroeconomic issues, debates, crises and solutions. Macroeconomic models and case studies are used to better understand the historical and current behavior of the economy as a whole, to better understand the sources of the various historical and current controversies concerning macroeconomic policy and to analyze the effects of macroeconomic phenomena on managerial decision making. The first part of the course concentrates on long-run issues: the wealth of nations, economic growth, the effects of international trade and the effects of government policies on such long-run issues. The course examines the determination of employment, output, prices, wages, interest rates, national saving, investment and international flows of goods, services and assets. The second part of the course concentrates on short-run issues such as inflation, the business cycle and policies attempting to stabilize the economy's short-run fluctuations. The final part of the course focuses on international currency crises, foreign economic fluctuations and current macroeconomic policies that contribute to and combat such problems.
PHONE: 847-491-4113
FAX: 847-491-5719
Jacobs Center Room 429