FINANCE
Harry G. Guthmann Professor of Finance
Director, Zell Center for Risk Research
Professor Korajczyk’s research interests are in the areas of investments and empirical asset pricing. He is a recipient of the 2009 Crowell Prize for best paper in the field of quantitative asset management, awarded by PanAgora Asset Management; the Alumni Choice Faculty Award 2000; the Core Teaching Award 1998 and 2000; the Sidney J. Levy Teaching Award 1996; the New York Stock Exchange Award for Best Paper on Equity Trading, presented at the 1993 Western Finance Association annual meetings; and the Review of Financial Studies Best Paper Award, 1991.
Professor Korajczyk is a past editor of the Review of Financial Studies and a past associate editor of the Review of Financial Studies, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Journal of Empirical Finance, and the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.
He has held visiting faculty appointments at the University of Chicago, the University of Vienna, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He has served as a consultant to the World Bank and a number of other organizations.
Professor Korajczyk received his BA, MBA, and PhD degrees from the University of Chicago.
Equity Markets (Stock Market) (Includes: Asset Pricing, Investments and Portfolio Choice)
Investments and Portfolio Choice (Includes: Asset Pricing, Equity Markets/Stock Market)
Liquidity
Money Management/Asset Management (Hedge Funds)
Personal Finance
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Principal: Chicago Partners; 1995 - present.
Member: Academic Advisory Board: Gutmann Center for Portfolio Management, University of Vienna, 2002-present.
Member: Scientific Advisory Board, ITG, Inc., New York, New York; 2003 - 2004.
Consultant, Economics Department, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California. 1979-1980.
Financial Analyst, Atlantic Richfield Company, Los Angeles, California. 1977-1978.
Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, this paper examines intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We confirm a well-known return reversal commonly associated with bid-ask bounce. Notably, we also find significant continuation of returns at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for forty trading days. Percentage changes in volume, order imbalance, and volatility exhibit similar patterns, but do not explain the return patterns. Additionally, bid/ask spreads do not explain the return pattern. The return continuation at daily frequencies is more pronounced for, but not restricted to, the first and last half-hour periods of the day. These effects are not driven by firm size, systematic risk premia, or inclusion in the S&P500 index. The pattern is robust to controlling for a number of documented types of periodicity. Our results suggest that traders may wish to time portfolio rebalancing to account for these persistent intraday patterns.
There are many alternative measures of assets' liquidity. For many of these measures, previous research shows that there is commonality in liquidity across assets. These various measures may, themselves, be driven by common factors. This might be due to the fact that they measure some common aspect of liquidity or because they measure different, but correlated, dimensions of liquidity. We estimate latent factor models of liquidity aggregated across a variety of measures. We find that shocks to assets' liquidity have a common component across measures. We also find that across-measure systematic liquidity is a priced factor. Controlling for across-measure systematic liquidity risk, there is mixed evidence about the pricing of liquidity as a characteristic of assets. The pricing of this global systematic liquidity factor is robust to Fama-French factors as well as asset liquidity, size, and book-to-market equity characteristics.
This paper develops a dynamic approximate factor model in which returns are time-series heteroskedastic. The heteroskedasticity has three components: a factor-related component, a common asset-specific component, and a purely asset-specific component. We develop a new multivariate GARCH model for the factor-related component. We develop a univariate stochastic volatility model linked to a cross-sectional series of individual GARCH models for the common shocks to the volatility of asset-specific returns and for the purely asset-specific shocks to the volatility of asset-specific returns. We apply the analysis to monthly US equity returns for the period January 1926 to December 2000. We find that all three components contribute to the heteroskedasticity of individual equity returns. Factor volatility and the common component in asset-specific volatility have long-term secular trends as well as short-term autocorrelation, and correlation with interest rates and the business cycle.
We test whether momentum-based strategies remain profitable after considering market frictions induced by trading. Intra-day data are used to estimate alternative measures of proportional (spread) and non-proportional (price impact) trading costs. A cross-sectional model of the relation between trading costs and firm characteristics is used to predict costs out-of-sample. The price impact models imply that abnormal returns to portfolio strategies decline with portfolio size. We calculate break-even fund sizes which lead to zero abnormal returns. In addition to commonly studied equal- and value-weighted momentum strategies, we derive a liquidity-weighted strategy designed to reduce the cost of trades. Equal-weighted strategies perform the best before trading costs and the worst after trading costs. Liquidity-weighted and hybrid liquidity/value-weighted strategies have the largest break-even fund sizes: conservatively, $5 billion or more (relative to December 1999 market capitalization) may be invested in these momentum-based strategies before the apparent profit opportunities vanish.
This paper provides new evidence of how macroeconomic conditions affect capital structure choice. We model firms' target capital structures as a function of macroeconomic conditions and firm-specific variables. We split our sample based on a measure of financial constraints. We find that target leverage is counter-cyclical for the relatively unconstrained sample, but pro-cyclical for the relatively constrained sample. The choice of what type of security to issue/repurchase is significantly related to deviations from the target capital structure, particularly for the constrained sample. Macroeconomic conditions are significant for issue choice for unconstrained firms but less so for constrained firms. Our results support the hypothesis that unconstrained firms are able to time their issue choice to periods when macroeconomic conditions are favorable, while constrained firms take what they can get.
In this paper we (a) quantify equity liquidity using a measure of price impact, the change in a firm's stock price associated with its observed net trading volume; (b) relate the measured price impact to a set of predetermined firm characteristics that serve as proxies for the severity of adverse selection in the equity market, the non-information based costs of making a market in the stock, and the extent of shareholder heterogeneity; and (c) compare, out-of-sample, our characteristic-based estimates of price impact to actual price impacts. Increasing the magnitude of net turnover during a 5-minute interval by 0.1% of the shares outstanding produces an average incremental price effect of 2.65% for NYSE and AMEX listed firms and 1.85% for NASDAQ firms. These averages, however, mask considerable cross-sectional variation. We present evidence that liquidity varies cross-sectionally as a function of predetermined firm characteristics as predicted by theories based on adverse selection, market making costs, and shareholder heterogeneity. We also find intra-day patterns, with the price impact being higher at the beginning and end of the trading day relative to the middle of the day. For a large set of institutional trades we examine the relation between actual price impact and that predicted out-of-sample using the cross sectional relation between firm characteristics and price impact. We find numerous aspects of trade execution which are significantly related to the price impact forecast error in intuitive ways: for example, the predicted price impact overestimates the actual price impact for very large trades, for trades executed in a more patient manner, and for trades where the institution pays higher commissions.
A wide array of official capital controls across countries makes it difficult to perform cross-sectional analysis of the effects of market segmentation. This article constructs a measure of deviations of asset returns from capital market integration that can be consistently applied across countries. It measures deviations of asset returns from an equilibrium model of returns constructed assuming market integration. Applying the measure to stock returns from twenty-four national markets indicates that market segmentation tends to be much larger for emerging markets than for developed markets, and that the measure tends to decrease over time. Along several dimensions, the proposed measure yields results that are consistent with reasonable priors about the relations between effective integration and explicit capital controls, capital market development, and economic growth.
This article studies predictability in U.S. stock returns for multiple investment horizons. We measure to what extent predictability is driven by premiums for economywide risk factors, comparing two standard methods for factor selection. We study single-beta models. We show how to estimate the fraction of the predictability in returns captured by the model, simultaneously with the other parameters. Our analysis indicates that the models capture a large fraction of the predictability for all of the investment horizons. The performance of the principal components and the prespecified-factor approaches are broadly similar.
An important issue in applications of multifactor models of asset returns is the appropriate number of factors. Most extant tests for the number of factors are valid only for strict factor models, in which diversifiable returns are uncorrelated across assets. In this paper we develop a test statistic to determine the number of factors in an approximate factor model of asset returns, which does not require that diversifiable components of returns be uncorrelated across assets. We find evidence for one to six pervasive factors in the cross-section of New York Stock Exchange and American Stock Exchange stock returns.
This paper develops a formal model of the effect of time-varying asymmetric information on the timing and pricing of equity issues when managers are better informed than outside investors. We assume that as time passes, the adverse selection problem becomes more severe as more managers receive a private signal. Under this assumption, the model predicts temporal variation in the quantity of issues, with a bunching of issues after information releases. It also predicts that the price drop at issue announcement increases with the time since the last information release. These predictions are consistent with several recent empirical studies relating equity issues to earnings and dividend announcements.
We investigate the relation between the risk premia observed in forward foreign exchange markets and international equity markets using the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. If returns on well-diversified equity portfolios explain movements in agents' intertemporal marginal rate of substitution, then the time variation in forward risk premia should be explained by the forward contract's sensitivity to the equity portfolios and the time variation in the risk premia of those portfolios. We find that equity and forward risk premia are related, but that forward contracts have a component of their conditional mean returns unexplained by their relation to equity factors.
This article examines the risk and return characteristics of U.S. mutual funds. We employ an equilibrium version of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and a principal-components-based statistical technique to identify performance benchmarks. We also consider the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as an alternative. We implement a procedure for overcoming the rotational indeterminacy of factor models. This procedure is a hybrid of statistical factor estimation and prespecification of factors. We estimate measures of timing ability for the CAPM and extend it to the APT. We find that this timing test is misspecified due to noninformation-based changes in mutual fund betas. We develop a modification of the timing measure that, under certain conditions, distinguishes true timing ability from noninformation-based beta changes.
With time-varying adverse selection in the market for new equity issues, firms will prefer to issue equity when the market is most informed about the quality of the firm. This implies that equity issues tend to follow credible information releases. In addition, if the asymmetry in information increases over time between information releases, the price drop at the announcement of an equity issue should increase in the time since the last information release. Using earnings releases as a proxy for informative events, we find evidence supporting these propositions.
We investigate several asset pricing models in an international setting. We use data on a large number of assets traded in the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and France. The models together with the hypothesis of capital market integration imply testable restrictions on multivariate regressions relating asset returns to various benchmark portfolios. We find that multifactor models tend to outperform single-index models in both domestic and international forms especially in their ability to explain seasonality in asset returns. We also find that the behavior of the models is affected by changes in the regulatory environment in international markets.
This article develops an intertemporal, discrete-time, competitive equilibrium version of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) and explores the econometric implications of this model under various restrictions on investor preferences and on the dynamic behavior of dividends. We describe conditions under which the econometric techniques typically used for estimating and testing the APT can be shown to be consistent with our economic model. We relate our intertemporal version of the APT to the static APT and to Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model.
We use an asymptotic principal components technique to estimate the pervasive factors influencing asset returns and to test the restrictions imposed by static and intertemporal equilibrium versions of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) on a multivariate regression model. The empirical techniques allow for fairly arbitrary time variation in risk premiums. We find that the APT provides a better description of the expected returns on assets than the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). However, some statistically reliable mispricing of assets by the APT remains.
A number of techniques have been proposed to measure portfolio performance and to distinguish between performance due to forecasting security-specific returns and performance due to forecasting market-wide events. We show theoretically and empirically that it is possible to construct portfolios that show artificial timing ability when no true timing ability exists. In particular, investing in options or levered securities will show spurious market timing. These types of securities will also induce the negative correlation between measured selectivity and timing ability found by others. We suggest specification tests to help distinguish between spurious and true timing ability. In addition, the tests can be used to distinguish between different models of the manager's reaction function.
This paper develops a theory and econometric method of portfolio performance measurement using a competitive equilibrium version of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. We show that the Jensen coefficient and the appraisal ratio of Treynor and Black are theoretically compatible with the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. We construct estimators for the two performance measures using a new principal components technique, and describe their asymptotic distributions. The estimators are computationally feasible using a large number of securities. We also suggest a new approach to testing for the correct number of factors.
This paper investigates the nature of observed deviations from the unbiased expectations hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market. If these deviations are due to risk premia, then the same premia should be observed in nominal bonds denominated in different currencies. This condition imposes testable restrictions on the parameters of a multivariate regression model. The empirical results are consistent with a world in which time-varying risk premia cause the observed deviations from unbiased expectations.
This paper considers two methods of estimating factor returns from asset returns: two-pass cross-sectional regression (TPCSR) and asymptotic principal components (APC). We show that, for a balanced panel of assets, iteration of the two-pass cross-sectional regression converges to the same estimated factor returns regardless of the initial factors chosen. Moreover, those estimates are equivalent to the APC estimates (within a linear transformation of rank k). For unbalanced panels identical estimates are obtained from iterated TPCSR and an iterated version of APC. Again, the alternative estimates should converge regardless of the initial factors chosen to start the iterated TPCSR. There is some evidence of convergence issues with unbalanced panels and non-normally distributed data, since in one out of four sample periods the iterated TPCSR estimates do not converge to the APC estimates.
Many studies have documented portfolio strategies that provide returns in excess of those expected, given the level of risk of the portfolio. Variables that seem to have predictive power for equity returns include the market capitalization of the firm’s equity and the ratio of the firm’s book equity to market equity (BE/ME). Firms with low market capitalization and high book-tomarket values seem to earn high returns. With respect to the book-to-market anomaly, it has been argued that the apparent superior performance is due to a subtle selection bias in a typical data source used to implement the tests of asset pricing models, the COMPUSTAT data. We use a sample of COMPUSTAT data that is free from this bias to investigate whether the previous evidence on the book-to-market anomaly is an artifact of this selection bias. The postulated selection bias does not seem to be important for samples restricted to NYSE/AMEX firms. There is some difference when NASDAQ firms are included in the standard COMPUSTAT sample. This may be due to a truly stronger BE/ME effect or to a more severe selection bias in that sample. Our data do not allow us to disentangle these two possible explanations.
We suggest a technique for estimating pervasive economic factors which allows the use of all available security return data. The resulting factor estimates can be used in applications and tests of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). An obvious advantage of the technique is that more precise estimates of the factors are obtained while avoiding potential survivorship biases in factor construction. Empirically, the factor estimates using the entire data set outperform (in terms of asset pricing) estimates using only continuously traded assets.
The foundation of modern portfolio theory is the mean-variance portfolio selection approach of Markowitz (1952, 1959). We discuss the role of factor models in implementing portfolio selection, defining the nature of systematic risk, and estimating the premium for risk bearing.
Factor models of security returns decompose the random return on each of a cross-section of assets into pervasive components, affecting almost all assets, and a diversifiable component. We describe four alternative approaches to factor models of asset returns. We also discuss issues related to estimating factor models and testing for the appropriate number of factors.
Investors are natural risk bearers, in part, due to the vast array of risk management tools available to them. These tools allow a risk budgeting process that de-couples the asset allocation and active bets taken in the portfolio. The risk of non-traded assets in the portfolio can be reduced by selective hedging and insurance products. Non-traded assets and a dynamic risk/return tradeoff lead to horizon specific asset allocation. Portfolios should be constructed to account for the systematic shifts in asset liquidity.
The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) of Ross (1976, 1977), and extensions of that theory, constitute an important branch of asset pricing theory and one of the primary alternatives to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In this chapter we survey the theoretical underpinnings, econometric testing, and applications of the APT. We aim for variety in viewpoint without attempting to be all-inclusive. Where necessary, we refer the reader to the primary literature for more complete treatments of the various research areas we discuss. In Section II we discuss factor modelling of asset returns. The APT relies fundamentally on a factor model of asset returns. Section III describes theoretical derivations of the APT pricing restriction. Section IV surveys the evidence from estimates and tests of the APT. In Section V we discuss several additional empirical topics in applying multifactor models of asset returns. We survey applications of the APT to problems in investments and corporate finance in Section VI. We provide some concluding comments in Section VII.
The link between the real and financial decisions of firms has been studied for many years, yet it remains poorly understood. Neoclassical investment theories such as Tobin's q posit a direct, simple link between the market's valuation of the firm and investment decisions: firms invest when the market value of an investment exceeds the cost of the investment. For a variety of reasons—agency conflicts between management and security holders, conflicts among security holders, and asymmetric information between management and security holders—the relation between real and financial decisions may be quite complex.
In this paper we study seasoned equity issues as one piece of the corporate financing and investment puzzle. We expect equity issues to be particularly revealing about the role of asymmetric information in financing decisions. First, to the extent that there is asymmetric information between management and outside security holders, the asymmetry should be of greatest concern to potential buyers of common stock since stock is the residual claim on the firm. Second, it is well documented that stocks exhibit large abnormal returns during the period surrounding an equity issue. This suggests that equity issues do in fact reveal valuable information to the market. It is therefore natural to consider whether the price behavior of an equity-issuing firm sheds light on the importance of asymmetric information in the investment process.
This course counts toward the following majors: Finance
Students enrolled in this sequence of courses will manage a portion of the Kellogg School’s endowment. The courses will combine investment theory with exposure to leading practitioners. Students will rotate across roles of industry analysts, hedge fund fund-of-funds managers, traders, quantitative analysts, and portfolio managers. Students must take the entire sequence, FINC 933, 934, and 935.
Co-requisites: Over the three-quarter sequence students must take four quarter credits in additional asset management-related courses from the following list:
FINC-442-0 Financial Decisions
FINC-444-0 Advanced Topics in Finance
FINC-447-0 Financial Strategy and Tax Planning
FINC-451-0 Money Markets and the Fed
FINC-460-0 Investments
FINC-463-0 Security Analysis
FINC-464-0 Fixed Income Securities
FINC-465-0 Derivative Markets I
FINC-467-0 Derivative Markets II
ACCT-451-0 Financial Reporting and Analysis
ACCT-452-0 Financial Reporting and Analysis II
Asset Management Practicum IV (FINC-936-0)
This course counts toward the following majors: Finance
Asset Management Practicum IV is a continuation of Asset Management Practicum I, II, and III. Students in Asset Management IV will be responsible for using the analyses of students in Asset Management Practicum I, plus their own analyses, to determine portfolio positions, trading strategies, and asset allocations for the student-managed portfolio.
Asset Management Practicum IV (FINC-936-C)
This course counts toward the following majors: Finance
Asset Management Practicum IV is a continuation of Asset Management Practicum I, II, and III. Students in Asset Management IV will be responsible for using the analyses of students in Asset Management Practicum I, plus their own analyses, to determine portfolio positions, trading strategies, and asset allocations for the student-managed portfolio.
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