FINANCE
John L. and Helen Kellogg Professor of Finance
Professor Eberly's research focuses on finance and macroeconomics. Her work studies firms' capital budgeting decisions and household consumption and portfolio choice. She further examines the interaction of these spending and investment choices with the macroeconomy. Her current research emphasizes household finance and the cost of updating wealth portfolios, while other work focuses on the difficulties and implications of reallocating capital across sectors. She has received a Sloan Foundation research fellowship and grant funding from the National Science Foundation.
An Associate Editor of the American Economic Review, the Journal of Monetary Economics, and Macroeconomic Dynamics, Professor Eberly is also an associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and has been a visiting scholar at several Federal Reserve Banks and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She also served on the staff of the President's Council of Economic Advisors and is an elected member of the Executive Committee of the American Economic Association.
Professor Eberly has won numerous awards for her teaching, including most recently the Chairs' Core Teaching Award in 2001 and 2006 and the Outstanding Professor Award from the Executive Master's Program in 2002 and 2008. She received her Ph.D. in Economics from MIT.
Macroeconomics (Includes: Monetary Economics, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates)
Monetary Policy (Monetary Economics, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates)
Real Options (Investments)
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Discussion of Comin and Philippon's paper on the decline in aggregate economic volatility and apparent concurrent rise in firm-level volatility. In process.
Irreversibility and uncertainty increase the user cost of capital which tends to reduce the capital stock. Working in the opposite direction is a hangover effect, which arises because irreversibility prevents the firm from selling capital even when the marginal revenue product of capital is low. Neither the user cost effect nor the hangover effect dominates globally, so that irreversibility may increase or decrease capital accumulation. Furthermore, an increase in uncertainty can either increase or decrease the long-run capital stock under irreversibility relative to that under reversibility. Other effects that we consider, however, have unambiguous effects on long-run capital accumulation.
When factors of production can be adjusted costlessly, the mix of factors can be considered separately from their scale. We examine factor choice and utilization when investment is irreversible and subject to a fixed cost, so that the capital stock is a quasi-fixed factor that is adjusted infrequently and by discrete amounts. We derive and analyze analytic approximations for optimal investment behavior, and show how the quasi-fixity of capital eliminates the dichotomy between factor mix and scale. In addition, the quasi-fixity of capital has important implications for the dynamics of employment by the firm. We show that labor hoarding can arise, even though labor is modeled as a purely flexible factor.
This paper derives closed-form solutions for the investment and value of a competitive firm with a constant-returns-to-scale production function and convex costs of adjustment. Solutions are derived for the case of irreversible investment as well as for reversible investment. Optimal investment is a non-decreasing function of q, the shadow value of capital. Relative to the case of reversible investment, the introduction of irreversibility does not affect q, but it reduces the fundamental value of the firm.
If a firm's costs of installing capital are not quadratic, then its optimal investment is not a linear function of fundamentals, such as the returns and costs of capital. This study specifies a model in which a firm may face fixed, linear, and convex costs of investing, and estimates the resulting investment function using firm-level data from 11 countries. The evidence suggests important nonlinearities, consistent with the presence of fixed or other non-quadratic costs, in the relationship between investment and fundamentals for most countries. These findings are statistically signficant at the level of the firm, and economically significant when aggregated by country.
We characterize a firm's optimal factor adjustment when any number of factors faced "kinked" linear adjustment costs so that all factor accumulation is costly to reverse. We first consider a general non-stationary case with a concave operating profit function, unrestricted form of uncertainty and a horizon of arbitrary length. We show that the optimal investment strategy follows a control limit policy at each point in time. The state space of the firm's problem is partitioned into various domains, including a continuation region where no adjustment shoudl optimally be made to factor levels. We then consider two specific model classes and exploit their special structure to derive expressions for their continuation regions.
Investment is characterized by costly reversibility when a firm can purchase capital at a given price and sell capital at a lower price. We solve for the optimal investment of a firm that faces costly reversibility under uncertainty and we extend the Jorgensonian concept of the user cost of capital to this case. We define and calculate cU and cL as the user cost of capital associated with the purchase and sale of capital, respectively. Optimality requires the firm to purchase and sell capital as needed to keep the marginal revenue product of capital in the closed interval [cL,cU]. This prescription encompasses the case of irreversible investment as well as the standard neoclassical case of costlessly reversible investment.
Capital investment decisions must recognize the limitations on the firm's ability to later sell or expand capacity. This paper shows how opportunities for future expansion or contraction can be valued as options, how their valuation relates to the q theory of investment, and their effect on the incentive to invest. Generally, the option to expand reduces the incentive to invest, while the option to disinvest raises it. We show how these options determine the effect of uncertainty on investment, how they are changed by shifts of the distribution of future profitability, and how the q-theory and option pricing approaches are related.
This paper extends the theory of investment under uncertainty to incorporate fixed costs of investment, a wedge between the purchase price and sale price of capital, and potential irreversibility of investment. In this extended framework, investment is a nondecreasing function of q, the shadow price of installed capital. The optimal rate of investment is in one of three regimes (positive, zero, or negative gross investment), depending on the value of q relative to two critical values. In general however, the shadow price q is not directly observable, so we present two examples relating q to observable variables.
This paper tests an optimal (S, s) rule in household durable purchases and examines directly the resulting aggregate expenditure dynamics. The observed decision rule responds to income uncertainty and growth as predicted by an (S, s) model resulting from transactions costs. Tests against liquidity constraints find that about half the households purchase according to an optimal (S, s) rule. Aggregating the (S, s) rule over households produces a cross-section distribution of durables holdings. The empirical distribution is similar to that predicted theoretically, as is its response to aggregate shocks. Furthermore, simulations of aggregate expenditure based on the household distribution exhibit dynamics consistent with those observed in the 1980s.
Recurrent intervals of inattention to the stock market are optimal if it is costly to observe asset values. When consumers observe the value of their wealth, they decide whether to transfer funds between a transactions account from which consumption must be financed and an investment portfolio of equity and riskless bonds. Transfers of funds are subject to a proportional transactions cost, so the consumer may choose not to transfer any funds on a particular observation date. In general, the optimal adjustment rule–including the size and direction of transfers, and the time of the next observation–is state-dependent. Surprisingly, the consumer’s optimal behavior eventually evolves to a situation with a purely time-dependent rule, with a constant interval of time between observations that can be substantial even for tiny observation costs. In the long run, but only in the long run, the standard consumption Euler equation holds between observation dates if the consumer is sufficiently risk averse.
Which investment model fits firm-level data? To answer this question we estimate alternative models using Compustat data. Surprisingly, the two best-performing specifications are based on Hayashi's (1982) model. This model's implication that Q is a sufficient statistic for determining a firm's investment decision has been often rejected because cash-flow and lagged-investment effects are present in investment regressions. But, we find that these regressions are quite fragile and ineffectual for evaluating model performance. So, forget what investment regressions told you. Models based on Hayashi (1982) provide a very good description of investment behavior at the firm level.
We develop a model in which the opportunity for a firm to upgrade its technology to the frontier (at a cost) leads to growth options in the value of the firm; that is, a firm's value is the sum of value generated by its current technology plus the value of the option to upgrade. Variation in the technological frontier leads to variation in firm value that is unrelated to current cash flow and investment, though variation in firm value anticipates future upgrades and investment. We simulate this model and show that in situations in which growth options are important, regressions of investment on Tobin's Q and cash flow yield small positive coefficients on Q and larger coefficients on cash flow, consistent with the empirical literature. We also show that when growth options are important, the volatility of firm value can substantially exceed the volatility of cash flow, as empirically documented by Shiller (1981) and West (1988).
Optimal investment depends both on expected returns and the costs of acquiring and installing capital. Empirical work using q-theory has emphasized the measurement of expected returns using Tobin's q, while more recent theoretical work focuses on investment costs, particularly fixed costs and irreversibility. This paper uses panel data to estimate a model of optimal investment and disinvestment using q to measure expected returns and allowing for a general "augmented adjustment cost function" -- incorporating fixed, linear, and convex adjustment costs. The results indicate both statistically and economically important nonlinearities, potentially arising from fixed costs, in the relationship between investment/disinvestment and its determinants. Our model suggests that investment and disinvestments should not be netted out empirically, and we find that disinvestment is non-negligible and behaves differently than positive investments. The nonlinearities we find imply that the cross-sectional distribution of q affects aggregate investment, so that the nonlinear model predicts annual aggregate investment substantially more successfully than does the linear model, particularly during large cyclical fluctuations.
A firm's value depends on both its existing capital and its available technologies, even if they are not yet installed. In contrast, the firm's current investment depends only on the currently installed technology. Thus, the value of the firm, and hence Tobin's Q, are "too forward-looking" relative to the investment decision. Cash flow, on the other hand, reflects only current technology and demand. The excessively forward-looking information in Tobin's Q, while extraneous to high frequency investment decisions, does predict future adoptions of the frontier technology. In this way, it is a better predictor of long-run investment than of short-run investment. Short-run investment is better predicted by the firm's cash flow.
Tobin's Q exceeds one, even without any adjustment costs, for a firm that earns rents from monopoly power. Even when there are no adjustment costs and marginal Q is always equal to one, Tobin's Q is informative about the firm's growth prospects. We show that investment is positively related to Tobin's Q (which is observable average Q). In addition, cash flow has a positive effect on investment, and this effect is larger for smaller, faster growing and more volatile firms, even though capital markets are perfect. These results provide a new theoretical foundation for Q theory and also cast doubt on evidence of financing constraints based on cash flow effects on investment.
The cost of an irreversible investment cannot be recovered once it is installed. This restriction not only truncates negative investments, but also raises the threshold for positive investment. With uncertainty, the threshold return that justifies an irreversible investment increases with uncertainty, or more precisely, with the probability mass in the lower tail of outcomes. Irreversibility constrains the ability to redeploy capital in "bad" states, so the agent is particularly sensitive to these states when investing ex ante. This finding is analagous to valuation and exercise of financial options, and irreversible investments are valued and understood using option pricing techniques.
This course counts toward the following majors: Analytical Finance, Finance
This course combines the materials of FINC-430 and FINC-441 into an intensive one-quarter course available to One-Year students and first-year students interested in accelerating their studies of finance. Students choosing this option should expect the presentations, readings and other homework to be at least double those of the regular courses. By combining these two courses into one quarter, students are able to take more advanced finance electives during their first year and have the opportunity to include an extra finance elective in their course schedules. Please note that this course carries the weight of one course only.
Prerequisites: Knowledge of (a) probability and statistics through linear regression and (b) financial accounting. Requirement (a) may be satisfied with prior or concurrent registration in DECS 434, sufficient previous course work in statistics or attending Finance I statistics tutorials (available fall quarter only). Requirement (b) may be satisfied with prior or concurrent registration in ACCT 430 or sufficient previous course work in financial accounting. MECN 430 is recommended.
Current research in topics such as international finance, empirical finance, capital structure and financial markets are analyzed. The seminar usually requires in-class presentations by students, as well as individual research projects.
Macroeconomics studies national and global economic activity. The course focuses on the effects of fiscal and monetary policies on GNP, interest rates, unemployment and inflation.
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