MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS & DECISION SCIENCES; OPERATIONS; THE MMM PROGRAM
Charles E. Morrison Professor of Decision Sciences, Co-Director MMM Program
Probability
Response Time Management
Risk Management
Total Quality Management
We consider two person bargaining problem when players can search for possible alternatives to each other's offers. The interlaced phases of bargaining and search over time are modeled as an extensive form non-cooperative game. The subgame perfect equilibrium outcome is characterized. The player with superior search ability is shown to gain a more favorable outcome and greater bargaining strength.
We consider a general model of nonrenewable resource consumption and exploration decisions under uncertainty. The unceratinty may be about the time of exhaustion, new stock discovery or a producible substitute availability. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the resource price to rise at rate equal to, greater than or less than the discount rate.
We propose a general model of optimal consumtion of a nonrenewable resource under two kinds of uncertainties. One affetcs resource discovery process and the other affects resource supply and demand conditions. The problem is set up as optimal control of a storage process with Markov additive inputs. The optimal value function is characterized and the existence of optimal consumption strategy is established. The optimal consumption rate is shown to be increasing and the resource price decreasing in the level of proven reserves. Several examples are given to illustrate the scope and applicability of the general model
Resource consumption yields social utility and exploration effort controls uncertainty in the timings of discoveries as well as their magnitudes. The goal is to maximize the total expected discounted utility of consumtion, net of the exploration effort. We present a controlled storage model and characterize the optimal policy. The associated resource price is shown to follow a stochastic version of the Hotelling.
We model R&D and new product introduction under competition as a stochastic game. During R&D each firm's product quality improves, but so does the risk of its competitor introducing his product first. We show that in equilibrium each firm sets a minimum threshold and introduces its product the first time its quality exceeds the threshold. We then study how the equilibrium quality and timing of introduction depend on the intensity of competition. In particular, we show that competition among two equally strong firms is socially optimal.
This is the second edition of our 1999 text on operations management.
This course will cover probabilistic and statistical methods for operations. Topics include probability distributions of random variables and their linear combinations, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, regression analysis and time series forecasting. Prerequisites: enrollment in the MMM Program
Analytical Methods for Operations (OPNS-440-B)
This course will cover modeling, analysis, and interpretation of operations problems on Excel spreadsheets. Topics include optimal resource allocation by Solver, risk analysis by Monte Carlo simulation, and Bayesian decision analysis. Prerequisites: Background in basic probability and statistics, and enrollment in the MMM Program
Spreadsheet Modeling for Managerial Decisions (OPNS-450-0)
This course counts toward the following majors: Analytical Consulting, Decision Sciences, Operations.
This course focuses on structuring, analyzing and solving managerial decision problems on Excel spreadsheets. We address problems of resource allocation (how to use available resources optimally), risk analysis (how to simulate the effects of uncertainty in problem parameters), decision analysis (how to analyze sequential decisions involving uncertainty), data analysis (how to synthesize the available data into useful information) and forecasting (how to extrapolate past observations into the future). In each area, we pose specific problems from operations, finance and marketing, structure them on Excel spreadsheets, and analyze and solve them using the available Excel commands, tools and add-ins. The course involves a hands-on, in-class learning experience in modeling and analyzing a variety of business decision problems on a common spreadsheet platform. It should, therefore, enhance one's problem-solving capabilities as well as spreadsheet skills. A good working knowledge of Microsoft Excel is required.
Analytical Decision Modeling focuses on structuring, analyzing and solving decision-problems spreadsheets. Problems involving optimal resource allocation and risk analysis are studied through applications in operations, finance and marketing. Some decision analysis, data analysis and forecasting is also covered. The course assumes working knowledge of Microsoft Excel.
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